Mitt Romney holds a narrow lead over Ron Paul in Iowa, according to the state's final major poll before Tuesday's Republican caucuses, but both are under threat from a late surge by Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney enjoys a slim lead in the final poll before the Iowa caucuses
Mr Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, leads the field 72 hours before the first stage of the contest to pick a candidate to challenge Barack Obama, according to the Des Moines Register newspaper, whose forecasts for the 2008 caucuses were notably accurate.
He has 24 per cent of support - a rise of eight points since the last DMR poll - while Dr Paul, a Texas congressman, is up four points to 22 per cent. Mr Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, follows with 15 per cent after a nine-point rise, according to the survey, which was carried out between December 27 and 30.
However, Mr Santorum's support rose to 21 per cent, overtaking Dr Paul on 18 per cent, when the final two days of polling were considered separately, the poll discovered. “Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said J. Ann Selzer, the top pollster for the newspaper.
It followed a CNN/Time poll on Wednesday in which Mr Santorum, who has been stuck in low single digits for most of the campaign, rose to third place, prompting suggestions that he had become the latest alternative to Mr Romney to enjoy a surge in support among the party's Right wing.
Speaking to ABC News in Ottumwa after the poll results were announced, Mr Santorum said: “We are the one who has the best chance to pick up, and finish maybe even ahead of Mitt Romney.”
The former Pennsylvania senator has spent three months camped out in Iowa, often travelling on a shoestring budget with no entourage whatsoever, while his rivals have jetted between early-voting states with huge teams, spending millions of dollars.
He is backed by many social conservatives for his zero-tolerance stance on abortion. He was endorsed by Bob Vander Plaats, the influential chief of The Family Leader, a Right-wing pressure group, who led the campaign for the Republicans' 2008 winner in Iowa, Mike Huckabee.
With support declining for two other conservative alternatives, Mr Santorum's following may build. Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker who last month rose to the top of the polls, dropped a remarkable 13 points to 12 per cent. Michele Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, was down one point to seven per cent.
In line with other surveys, the Des Moines Register also found that 41 per cent of likely caucus-goers said they could still be persuaded to change their minds, meaning much could change by Tuesday.
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