Mitt Romney could strike a decisive early blow in the contest to pick the Republican party’s presidential nominee by becoming the first candidate ever to win both the first two states to vote, opinion polls suggest.
Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney makes his way through a crowd during a campaign in Hampton
The former Massachusetts governor leads the party field both in Iowa, where tomorrow’s caucuses will give the candidates their first test, and in New Hampshire, where voters go to the polls next Tuesday.
If successful, Mr Romney would become the first Republican challenger in the modern primary system’s 35-year history to win both states. Party strategists concede that such a scenario would effectively end the contest after just one week of voting.
The double-victory would be particularly significant because of the states’ contrasting electorates. While Mr Romney, who made $250 million (£160 million) as a private equity executive, impresses New Hampshire’s fiscal conservatives, he is loathed by some Iowan social conservatives for his moderate stances on abortion and gay rights.
However, while his more Right-wing rivals have risen and fallen in the polls, the 64-year-old has steadily persuaded voters in both states that he has the best chance of beating President Barack Obama, who, he claims, “doesn’t understand America”.
"The president takes his inspiration from the social democrats of Europe, who would try to change us into a European-style welfare state," he told a rally at a packed restaurant in Atlantic last night.
His wife Ann told voters: "You guys have a job to do. Iowa can start what needs to be done, which is putting Mitt on the path to beating Barack Obama".
While Mr Romney is polling 20 percentage points clear of the field in New Hampshire, the final major poll in Iowa showed over the weekend that his lead there is slimmer.
He has 24 per cent of support, according to a survey by the Des Moines Register newspaper, whose pre-caucus forecasts have been notably accurate in previous election years. Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman, is second with 22 per cent, while Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, follows with 15 per cent and has rising support.
Amid America’s ongoing economic woe, Mr Romney has convinced many Iowans that he above all others knows how to lift the US out of the doldrums.
"Obama has no idea about business," said Kevin Kinzler, 55, the owner of a construction firm in Ames that hosted a Romney rally last week. "Romney would stop making it tougher for us to exist."
Despite having been a politician for 18 years, Mr Romney has enjoyed success with his claim to be the outsider sought by voters whose approval of Washington is at historically low levels.
"I don’t want politicians running America any more," Mr Romney told a crowd in West Des Moines last week. "I want to make sure that we have citizen leaders going to Washington." Meanwhile, last night he introduced himself as "a conservative businessman".
Much depends on the choices made by Iowa’s undecided voters. In line with other surveys, the Des Moines Register poll found that 41 per cent of likely caucus-goers may change their mind tomorrow.
At the Ames rally, Bobbi Thompson, 63, and her husband Dean, 64, told The Daily Telegraph that they would caucus for the former Massachusetts governor. "He will tell us the truth," said Mrs Thompson.
Yet on Saturday they were in the audience of a rally for Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, 15 miles away in Boone, wearing "Perry — President" stickers. "Perry is right up my alley," said Mrs Thompson.
Like more than a dozen Republicans who spoke to The Daily Telegraph over the past week, Merle Garman, 75, had little enthusiasm for Mr Romney but may back him as the best prospect of ousting Mr Obama. "Anyone would be better than the socialist we have now," said Mr Garman.
An aggregate of hypothetical polls pitting Mr Romney against Mr Obama by RealClearPolitics currently shows the president ahead by 1.6 percentage points.
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